Gangtok/New Delhi :13th April:The salient features of the Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall 2026, according to India Met Deptt, Ministry of Earth Sciences,New Delhi,are as follows:-
(1) India Meteorological Department predicts *below normal* southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2026.
(2) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 2026 is likely to be *92% of long period average (LPA)* with a model error of ± 5%.
(3) The LPA of the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on 1971-2020 is *87 cm.*
(4) Spatially, *below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country* except *some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, where it is likely to be normal to above-normal.*
(5) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are most likely during April to June 2026. Thereafter, *El-Nino conditions are very likely during SW Monsoon season.*
(6) Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. *Positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of SW monsoon season which is favourable for SW monsoon seasonal rainfall.*
(7) *Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover as well as Eurasian Snow Cover* during January to March 2026 were slightly *below normal,* which is *favourable for southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall 2026.*
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